:Product: 19971120RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Nov 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 324 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 NOV 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8108 (N19W11)
APPEARED TO SIMPLIFY AND DECAY DURING THE PERIOD, AND PRODUCED VERY
LITTLE FLARE ACTIVITY. THE REGION CONSISTS OF APPROXIMATELY 30
SPOTS, WITH SOME MIXTURE OF MAGNETIC POLARITIES. IT MEASURES 260
MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT AREA. THE OTHER SPOTTED REGION VISIBLE,
8109 (S19E11) WAS QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
WATCH REGION 8108 FOR C-CLASS FLARES AND, IF SOME RENEWED FLUX
EMERGENCE OCCURS, AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. EFFECTS OF THE HALO CME ON
NOVEMBER 17 ARE STILL POSSIBLE, AND THE LONG-DURATION C1 FLARE ON
NOVEMBER 19 FROM DISK CENTER MAY BE INDICATIVE OF ANOTHER CME. THE
SECOND CME IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FIELD ON NOVEMBER 23.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 NOV-23 NOV
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 NOV 089
PREDICTED   21 NOV-23 NOV  090/090/090
90 DAY MEAN        20 NOV 091
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 NOV  004/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 NOV  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 NOV-23 NOV  015/015-015/015-020/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 NOV-23 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/40
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/50
MINOR STORM           15/15/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05