:Product: 19971121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Nov 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 325 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 NOV 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8108 (N19W21) PRODUCED
SEVERAL LOW C-CLASS SUBFLARES. DURING THE PERIOD, THIS REGION, GREW
SLIGHTLY AND A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION FORMED IN THE LEADER.
PREVIOUS MIXED POLARITIES REMAINED. SPACE-BASED IMAGERS SHOWED A
BROAD AREA OF EMISSION OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIMB WHERE OLD REGION 8100
IS DUE TO RETURN.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY
LOW. REGION 8108 HAS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS
EVENTS. OLD REGION 8100 IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS ACTIVE AS LAST
ROTATION BUT UNTIL BETTER VIEWED, IT MUST BE CONSIDERED A CANDIDATE
FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. RECENT SOLAR WIND
DATA SHOW A VERY SLOW FLOW IN THE EARTH'S NEIGHBORHOOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED
MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON 23 NOV FROM A VERY LONG
DURATION X-RAY EVENT OBSERVED NEAR CENTRAL MERIDIAN ON 19 NOV.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 NOV-24 NOV
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 NOV 096
PREDICTED   22 NOV-24 NOV  103/108/110
90 DAY MEAN        21 NOV 092
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 NOV  002/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 NOV  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 NOV-24 NOV  015/015-020/020-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 NOV-24 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/35/30
MINOR STORM           10/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/40/35
MINOR STORM           15/25/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/15/05