:Product: 19971122RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Nov 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 326 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 NOV 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. TWO OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
C1 FLARES OCCURRED. REGION 8108 (N19W37) WAS GENERALLY STABLE BUT
BRIGHTNESS FLUCTUATIONS AND SUBFLARE RATES DECREASED. A MAGNETIC
DELTA CONFIGURATION REMAINED BUT WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. NEW REGION 8111
(N23E74) ROTATED AROUND THE LIMB AS A SMALL CLASS C SUNSPOT GROUP
THAT EXHIBITED SOME EXTENSIVE SURGING. WEAK PLAGE AND ACTIVE SURGING
WERE OBSERVED AT THE SOUTHEAST LIMB WHERE PREVIOUSLY ACTIVE REGION
8100 IS RETURNING.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGION 8108 REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING C-CLASS EVENTS AND
ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES. AT THIS TIME, OLD REGION 8100 APPEARS TO
HAVE DECAYED SIGNIFICANTLY ON ITS INVISIBLE HEMISPHERE TRANSIT. AT
THIS TIME, ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS AREA.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED FROM 22/0000-0900Z.
SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATED INCREASES IN VELOCITY AND DENSITY AROUND
22/0500Z. MINOR TO SEVERE STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRED FROM
22/0900-1800Z. IT IS POSSIBLE TO LIKELY THAT THIS DISTURBANCE IS
RELATED TO THE HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION OF 17 NOV.  THE FIELD WAS
ACTIVE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ON 23 NOV IN
RESPONSE TO A VERY LONG DURATION X-RAY EVENT ON 19-20 NOV. ISOLATED
MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THAT DAY. THE FIELD SHOULD
BECOME UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE ON 24 NOV AND QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON 25
NOV.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 NOV-25 NOV
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 NOV 100
PREDICTED   23 NOV-25 NOV  103/106/108
90 DAY MEAN        22 NOV 092
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 NOV  002/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 NOV  030/035
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 NOV-25 NOV  020/020-015/015-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 NOV-25 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/20
MINOR STORM           25/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    15/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/20
MINOR STORM           30/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    20/05/01