:Product: 19971124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Nov 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 328 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 NOV 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED M1 FLARE OCCURRED AT 24/1950Z. SOON ANALYSTS WERE
OBSERVING THE SUN DURING THE EVENT AND THEY DID NOT OBSERVE ANY
ENHANCEMENT IN CURRENT DISK REGIONS. OLD REGION 8103 IS DUE TO
RETURN AT THE NORTHEAST LIMB IN ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF AND THIS
COULD BE THE SOURCE OF THE M1. REGION 8103 WAS GROWING AT WEST LIMB
TRANSIT AND RECENT SPACE-BASED IMAGES SHOW ENHANCED EMISSION OVER
THE NORTHEAST LIMB. REGION 8108 (N20W65) PRODUCED A C3/1F AT
24/0400Z. THIS REGION DISPLAYED DECAY AND CONTINUED REDUCTION OF
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY.  OTHER DISK REGIONS SHOWED LITTLE EVOLUTION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8108 SHOULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS
BUT AT A DECREASING FREQUENCY. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE FLARE
POTENCY OF A REGION BEHIND THE LIMB. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST ARGUES
FOR OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. NEAR 24/1200Z, SOLAR
WIND VELOCITY DROPPED TO NEAR 450 KM/S. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BECAME HIGH DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 NOV-27 NOV
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 NOV 103
PREDICTED   25 NOV-27 NOV  103/107/105
90 DAY MEAN        24 NOV 092
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 NOV  052/060
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 NOV  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 NOV-27 NOV  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 NOV-27 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01