:Product: 19971125RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Nov 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 329 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 25 NOV 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED
SINCE YESTERDAY, MOST OF WHICH WERE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED. THE
LARGEST FLARE OF THE PAST DAY WAS A C9 AT 25/1952Z. THIS FLARE WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A 140 SFU RADIO BURST AT 2695 MHZ AND A BSL (BRIGHT
SURGE AT THE LIMB) NEAR N25E90. THIS AREA IS ALSO PRESUMED TO BE THE
SOURCE OF THE UNCORRELATED X-RAY FLARES. NO SPOTS ARE YET VISIBLE
BUT SOMETHING SHOULD COME INTO VIEW BY TOMORROW. REGION 8108
(N19W79) HAS DECAYED FURTHER AND IS APPROACHING THE WEST LIMB
QUIETLY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM THE
SUNSPOT GROUP ROUNDING THE NORTHEAST LIMB NEAR NE25. AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS AREA AS WELL.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 NOV-28 NOV
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    02/02/02
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           25 NOV 102
PREDICTED   26 NOV-28 NOV  100/102/105
90 DAY MEAN        25 NOV 093
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 NOV  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 NOV  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 NOV-28 NOV  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 26 NOV-28 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01