:Product: 19971127RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Nov 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 331 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 NOV 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8113 (N20E60) PRODUCED
AN X2/2B FLARE AT 27/1317Z. THIS FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A 350 SFU
RADIO BURST AT 2695 MHZ AND A TYPE II SWEEP. THIS REGION APPEARS TO
BE A MODERATE-SIZED COMPLEX E-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP, ALTHOUGH LIMB
PROXIMITY STILL INHIBITS COMPLETE ANALYSIS. THIS REGION ALSO
GENERATED SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS FLARES SINCE YESTERDAY. OTHER
REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH WITH REGION 8113 AS THE PRIMARY FLARE PRODUCER.
ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE IS POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
WAS HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 NOV-30 NOV
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     02/02/02
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 NOV 111
PREDICTED   28 NOV-30 NOV  115/120/125
90 DAY MEAN        27 NOV 093
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 NOV  004/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 NOV  003/003
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 NOV-30 NOV  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 NOV-30 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01