:Product: 19971128RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Nov 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 332 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 NOV 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8113 (N20E48) PRODUCED
ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE, AN M6/2B AT 28/0503Z. IT ALSO GENERATED AN
M1/SF AT 28/2009Z AND SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PERIOD. THIS
REGION REMAINS A MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX E-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP. OTHER
REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 8113 APPEARS CAPABLE OF ANOTHER MAJOR
FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
REMAINED HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO, BECOMING QUIET TO
UNSETTLED BY THE END OF THE THREE DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 NOV-01 DEC
CLASS M    75/75/75
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 NOV 116
PREDICTED   29 NOV-01 DEC  120/125/125
90 DAY MEAN        28 NOV 093
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 NOV  002/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 NOV  003/003
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 NOV-01 DEC  005/005-005/008-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 NOV-01 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05