:Product: 19971129RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Nov 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 333 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 NOV 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8113 PRODUCED THREE
MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE LARGEST A
C5/SF AT 29/0929Z. THIS REGION HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY STABLE IN
SIZE SINCE YESTERDAY, WHILE INCREASING IT'S SPOT COUNT FROM 19 TO
27. THE REGION'S LEADER SPOT HAS INCREASED IN SIZE TODAY, AND
SEVERAL OF THE INTERMEDIATE SPOTS NOW HAVE PENUMBRA. REGION 8113 IS
CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS AN 'EHO' BETA-GAMMA GROUP, ALTHOUGH THE MOUNT
WILSON OBSERVATORY CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC
CONFIGURATION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 8113 RETAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT M-CLASS
X-RAY ACTIVITY, AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX REMAINED HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY
INCREASING TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON DAYS TWO AND THREE. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE SHOCK ASSOCIATED WITH THE X2/2B FLARE ON 27 NOV.
COULD IMPACT EARTH EITHER LATE ON DAY TWO OR EARLY ON DAY THREE. IF
THIS OCCURS, ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO INCREASE BRIEFLY TO ACTIVE, WITH
THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED PERIOD OF MINOR STORMING.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 NOV-02 DEC
CLASS M    75/75/75
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 NOV 112
PREDICTED   30 NOV-02 DEC  125/125/120
90 DAY MEAN        29 NOV 093
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 NOV  002/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 NOV  002/002
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 NOV-02 DEC  005/007-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 NOV-02 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01