:Product: 19971130RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Nov 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 334 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 30 NOV 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8113 (N20E22) GENERATED
AN M6/2N FLARE EARLY IN THE REPORTING PERIOD AT 29/2244Z. ALTHOUGH
THIS REGION HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET SO FAR TODAY, WITH ONLY A
COUPLE OF MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS TO ITS CREDIT, THE REGION HAS GROWN
BY 30 PERCENT SINCE YESTERDAY TO 940 MILLIONTHS , AND INCREASED ITS
SPOT COUNT TO 46.  REGION 8113 IS CURRENTLY A POTENT 'FSC'
BETA-GAMMA-DELTA GROUP. THE REMAINDER OF THE VISIBLE DISK IS
SPOTLESS AND UNREMARKABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 8113 CONTINUES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT M-CLASS X-RAY ACTIVITY, IN ADDITION TO AN ISOLATED
X-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX RANGED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS BEGINNING ON DAY
THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 DEC-03 DEC
CLASS M    75/75/75
CLASS X    20/20/20
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           30 NOV 112
PREDICTED   01 DEC-03 DEC  125/125/120
90 DAY MEAN        30 NOV 094
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 NOV  001/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 NOV  007/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 DEC-03 DEC  010/008-010/010-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 DEC-03 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05