:Product: 19971201RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Dec 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 335 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 DEC 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  30/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8113 (N21E09)
GENERATED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 01/0237Z. SINCE THAT TIME, ONLY MINOR
C-CLASS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED. REGION 8113 IS DOWN IN OVERALL
AREA SINCE YESTERDAY TO APPROXIMATELY 550 MILLIONTHS, BUT ITS SPOT
COUNT REMAINS HIGH AT 50. WITH THE SPLITTING OF ITS TRAILING
PENUMBRA INTO THREE SEPARATE PENUMBRAS, REGION 8113 IS CURRENTLY
CLASSIFIED AS AN 'FHI' BETA-GAMMA, HAVING LOST ITS PREVIOUS DELTA
MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH, WITH THE CONTINUED HIGH PROBABILITY OF MAJOR
FLARES FROM REGION 8113.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY
INCREASING TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 DEC-04 DEC
CLASS M    75/75/75
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 DEC 117
PREDICTED   02 DEC-04 DEC  120/120/120
90 DAY MEAN        01 DEC 094
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 NOV  006/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 DEC  004/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 DEC-04 DEC  010/010-015/015-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 DEC-04 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01