:Product: 19971202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Dec 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 336 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 DEC 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8113 (N20W03) HAS
GENERATED ONLY MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE
MOST RECENT A C1/SF AT 02/1632Z.  ALTHOUGH THE REGION'S MAGNETIC
STRUCTURE NOW APPEARS FAIRLY DISORGANIZED, IT CONTINUES AS A
SIGNIFICANT 'EKI' BETA-GAMMA GROUP WITH AS MANY AS 60 SPOTS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 8113 MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR M-CLASS
ACTIVITY, AS WELL AS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS, FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 DEC-05 DEC
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 DEC 112
PREDICTED   03 DEC-05 DEC  115/115/110
90 DAY MEAN        02 DEC 094
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 DEC  003/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 DEC  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 DEC-05 DEC  008/005-008/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 DEC-05 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01