:Product: 19971203RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Dec 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 337 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 DEC 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8313 (N20W16) PRODUCED
OCCASIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. THE REGION DECLINED IN SPOT COUNT
DURING THE PERIOD, BUT RETAINED A MODERATELY COMPLEX MAGNETIC
STRUCTURE. NEW REGION 8114 (S30E04) WAS ASSIGNED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8113 IS CAPABLE OF M-CLASS FLARE ACTIVITY. THE
REGION COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE AS WELL.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 DEC-06 DEC
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 DEC 112
PREDICTED   04 DEC-06 DEC  110/108/106
90 DAY MEAN        03 DEC 094
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 DEC  003/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 DEC  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 DEC-06 DEC  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 DEC-06 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01