:Product: 19971204RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Dec 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 338 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 DEC 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8113 (N21W28) PRODUCED
JUST ONE C-CLASS FLARE, A C1/SF WITH AN ASSOCIATED BRIGHT SURGE AT
04/0541UT. MINOR RADIO BURST AT 245 MHZ THROUGH 4995 MHZ ACCOMPANIED
THE EVENT. THE REGION HAS DECAYED SLIGHTLY IN SPOT COUNT, AREA, AND
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AND NOW HAS APPROXIMATELY 26 SPOTS MEASURING 420
MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT AREA. THE OTHER SPOTTED REGION 8114
(S30W08) WAS QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8113, THOUGH SHOWING SIGNS OF DECAY, STILL HAS
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 DEC-07 DEC
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 DEC 107
PREDICTED   05 DEC-07 DEC  105/103/101
90 DAY MEAN        04 DEC 094
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 DEC  006/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 DEC  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 DEC-07 DEC  005/005-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 DEC-07 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01