:Product: 19971205RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Dec 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 339 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 DEC 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  REGION 8113 (N20W42)
CONTINUES TO DECAY PRODUCING JUST ONE SUBFLARE EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
THE REGION NOW CONSISTS OF APPROXIMATELY 12 SPOTS MEASURING 330
MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT AREA. NEW REGIONS 8115 (N33W19), A 4 SPOT
BXO SPOT GROUP, AND 8116 (N24E43), A SINGLE AXX SPOT, WERE NUMBERED
TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8113 STILL HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE C-CLASS
FLARES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR M-CLASS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED ACTIVITY IN THE HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
LATITUDES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SOME INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED ACTIVITY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 DEC-08 DEC
CLASS M    20/20/10
CLASS X    05/05/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 DEC 104
PREDICTED   06 DEC-08 DEC  102/100/098
90 DAY MEAN        05 DEC 095
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 DEC  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 DEC  007/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 DEC-08 DEC  005/008-005/008-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 DEC-08 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01