:Product: 19971206RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Dec 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 340 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 DEC 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TWO UNCORRELATED C1 XRAY BURSTS
WERE DETECTED. REGION 8113 (N21W55) CONTINUED TO DECAY AS IT NEARED
THE WEST LIMB. THIS REGION IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A CAO GROUP OF 7
SPOTS IN A SIMPLE MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. REGION 8115 (N33W34)
SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. REGION 8116 (N26E27) DISPLAYED
SLIGHT GROWTH AND IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A CRO GROUP OF ONLY 4 SPOTS.
ALL REGIONS WERE RELATIVELY QUIET. THE LARGE FILAMENT STRUCTURE IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE VISIBLE DISK LOST CONSIDERABLE MASS
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT PRODUCED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A CORONAL
MASS EJECTION SIGNATURE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. REGION 8113 STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR C-CLASS FLARING AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ISOLATED
MINOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY AS IT FURTHER DECAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 DEC-09 DEC
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 DEC 109
PREDICTED   07 DEC-09 DEC  104/104/100
90 DAY MEAN        06 DEC 095
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 DEC  007/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 DEC  006/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 DEC-09 DEC  005/008-005/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 DEC-09 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01