:Product: 19971207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Dec 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 341 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 DEC 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8113 (N20W70) IS
NEARING THE WEST LIMB AND CONTINUES ITS STEADY DECAY. IT IS NOW A 3
SPOT CSO GROUP. NEW REGION 8117 (N21E37), A BXO GROUP WITH 3 SPOTS
WAS NUMBERED TODAY. THE REMAINING 3 REGIONS HAVE SHOWN SOME SLOW
GROWTH BUT ARE STILL MOSTLY SMALL PLAGE AREAS WITH SIMPLE MAGNETIC
CONFIGURATIONS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8113'S THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED BUT VERY
ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARING IS STILL POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 DEC-10 DEC
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 DEC 099
PREDICTED   08 DEC-10 DEC  098/096/096
90 DAY MEAN        07 DEC 094
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 DEC  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 DEC  003/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 DEC-10 DEC  005/008-005/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 DEC-10 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01