:Product: 19971208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Dec 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 342 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 DEC 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  REGION 8113 (N20W87) IS
QUIETLY ROTATING OFF THE VISIBLE DISK. IMPRESSIVE NEW REGION GROWTH
OCCURRED TODAY WITH 3 NEW SPOTTED REGIONS DEVELOPING. NEWLY NUMBERED
REGIONS INCLUDE: 8118 (S38E37), A 6 SPOT BXO GROUP, 8119 (N32E00), A
3 SPOT BXO, AND 8120 (S22E36), A 5 SPOT BXO GROUP. SEVEN SPOTTED
REGIONS NOW EXIST BUT ALL ARE SMALL WITH SIMPLE MAGNETIC
CONFIGURATIONS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8118 EXHIBITED SIGNS OF GROWTH AND EXPERIENCED
PERIODS OF STRONG SURGING; HOWEVER, THE BIGGEST THREAT MAY COME FROM
REGION 8119. ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO REGION 8116 (N26W03) MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT IF EITHER OR BOTH REGIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. BOTH
REGIONS ARE SHOWING SOME SLOW GROWTH.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON DAY 3 DUE TO A HALO CME OBSERVED AT
06/1030UT. THE CME CORRELATED WELL WITH A VERY LONG DURATION C1
FLARE (06/1052 - 07/0041UT) FROM REGION 8113. THE APPARENT LOW SPEED
OF THE CME COUPLED WITH A PRESENT LOW WIND VELOCITY SUGGEST
WEDENSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR GEOMAGNETIC EFFECTS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 DEC-11 DEC
CLASS M    05/05/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 DEC 098
PREDICTED   09 DEC-11 DEC  099/099/102
90 DAY MEAN        08 DEC 094
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 DEC  003/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 DEC  003/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 DEC-11 DEC  005/008-020/013-020/013
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 DEC-11 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/30/30
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/40/40
MINOR STORM           05/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01