:Product: 19971209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Dec 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 343 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 DEC 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGIONS 8116 (N25W15), A 5
SPOT CSO GROUP, AND 8119 (N32W13), AN 8 SPOT CRO GROUP, ARE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY AND EXHIBITED SLOW GROWTH IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGIONS
8118 (S39E25), A 7 SPOT CAO, AND 8120 (S22E22), A 9 SPOT CRO, ALSO
SHOWED SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT BUT ALL 4 REGIONS MAINTAIN SIMPLE
MAGNETIC CONFIGURATIONS AND HAVE YET TO PRODUCE ANY FLARE ACTIVITY.
A NEW SMALL COMPACT PLAGE REGION IS DEVELOPING NEAR N26W38 BUT NO
SPOTS ARE VISIBLE IN WHITE LIGHT YET. REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN
QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. ALL 4 SPOT REGIONS MENTIONED ABOVE EXHIBITED PERIODIC
POINT BRIGHTNINGS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SEVERAL MINOR RADIO BURSTS
AND SWEEPS ALSO OCCURRED INDICATING GROWTH. VERY ISOLATED C-CLASS
FLARING IS POSSIBLE FROM THESE REGIONS IF GROWTH CONTINUES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. SOLAR WIND
VELOCITY HAS DROPPED TO NEAR 200 KM/S.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REACH UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW DUE TO
THE VERY LONG DURATION C1 FLARE AND ASSOCIATED HALO/CME ON 6
DECEMBER. DISTURBED CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 11 DECEMBER
AND RETURN TO QUIET BY THE 12TH.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 DEC-12 DEC
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 DEC 097
PREDICTED   10 DEC-12 DEC  097/098/100
90 DAY MEAN        09 DEC 094
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 DEC  001/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 DEC  002/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 DEC-12 DEC  020/013-020/013-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 DEC-12 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/05
MINOR STORM           05/05/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01