:Product: 19971210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Dec 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 344 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 DEC 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NUMEROUS OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED MINOR RADIO SWEEPS OCCURRED EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT
ACTIVITY TAPERED OFF BY 10/1000UT. REGION 8119 (N33W25), AN 8 SPOT DAO
GROUP, IS THE ONLY REGION SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF GROWTH BUT STILL
MAINTAINS A SIMPLE MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. NEW REGION 8121 (N25W55),
A 3 SPOT BXO, WAS NUMBERED TODAY. ALL REMAINING REGIONS ARE SMALL
AND SHOWING SIGNS OF DECAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW. REGION 8119 IS THE ONLY REGION POSING ANY THREAT BUT NEEDS
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BEFORE C-CLASS FLARING IS LIKELY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN THE PERIOD AT QUIET LEVELS BUT QUICKLY
ESCALATED TO UNSETTLED AT 10/0600UT AND ACTIVE CONDITIONS AT
10/1200UT. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED SINCE. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS A RESULT OF THE 6 DECEMBER VERY LONG DURATION C1
FLARE AND ASSOCIATED HALO/CME.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THROUGH TOMORROW BECOMING
QUIET TO UNSETTLED LATE. EXPECT QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ON
DAY 2 AND 3.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 DEC-13 DEC
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 DEC 095
PREDICTED   11 DEC-13 DEC  093/091/093
90 DAY MEAN        10 DEC 094
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 DEC  001/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 DEC  020/017
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 DEC-13 DEC  020/015-010/010-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 DEC-13 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/15/05
MINOR STORM           10/05/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                45/20/10
MINOR STORM           20/10/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01