:Product: 19971211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Dec 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 345 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 DEC 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. SEVERAL OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED B CLASS X-RAY BURSTS AND MINOR RADIO SWEEPS OCCURRED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. REGION 8119 (N32W38) CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT
SLOW GROWTH AND IS NOW A 15 SPOT DSO BETA GROUP. NEW REGION 8122
(N31W06) WAS NUMBERED TODAY AND DEVELOPED IMPRESSIVELY INTO AN 18
SPOT DRO BETA GROUP. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW TO LOW. REGION 8119 HAS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED C-CLASS
FLARING. ISOLATED C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN REGION
8122. IF THIS REGION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY AT ITS
PRESENT GROWTH RATE, IT MAY SOON BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE DISTURBANCE, WHICH
BEGAN YESTERDAY, IS STARTING TO SUBSIDE. THE FIELD IS NOW AT
PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. HIGH LATITUDES MAY EXPERIENCE
ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 DEC-14 DEC
CLASS M    05/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 DEC 096
PREDICTED   12 DEC-14 DEC  094/094/096
90 DAY MEAN        11 DEC 094
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 DEC  015/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 DEC  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 DEC-14 DEC  010/010-010/008-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 DEC-14 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01