:Product: 19971212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Dec 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
::::::::::::::::::CORRECTED COPY:::::::::::::::::
SDF NUMBER 346 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 DEC 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8119 (N33W49), AN 8 SPOT
DAO GROUP, PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 12/0713UT. REGION 8122 (N31W18), A 14
SPOT DSO GROUP, PRODUCED OCCASIONAL B-CLASS SUBFLARES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. BOTH THESE REGIONS ARE THE LIKELY SOURCES OF THREE
UNCORRELATED C-CLASS FLARES THAT OCCURRED BETWEEN 12/1046 -
12/1218UT. ALL THREE OF THESE C-CLASS FLARES APPEARED DURING A
PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED X-RAY EMISSIONS BETWEEN 12/1000 -
12/1300UT. THE ENHANCMENT IS POSSIBLY DUE TO THE DISAPPEARANCE OF A
LONG, APPROXIMATELY 50 DEGREE, FRAGMENTED FILAMENT FROM THE SW
QUADRANT. THE REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW TO LOW. REGION 8119 EXHIBITED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE SINCE
YESTERDAY BUT IS STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED C-CLASS
FLARING. REGION 8122 HAS STABILIZED SINCE ITS DRAMATIC GROWTH
YESTERDAY AND IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARING.
OLD REGION 8108 IS ROUNDING THE EAST LIMB BUT APPEARS MUCH WEAKER
THAN ITS LAST TRANSIT ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 DEC-15 DEC
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 DEC 093
PREDICTED   13 DEC-15 DEC  094/095/095
90 DAY MEAN        12 DEC 093
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 DEC  011/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 DEC  003/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 DEC-15 DEC  010/008-010/008-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 DEC-15 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
PLAIN
CORRECTION TO INCLUDE GREATER THAN 2 MEV FLUX INFO.