:Product: 19971214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Dec 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 348 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 DEC 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8122 (N29W47) PRODUCED A
C1/SF FLARE AT 14/1611Z. THIS REGION WAS GENERALLY STABLE WITH MINOR
POLARITY MIXING IN THE NON-SPOT FIELDS. A REGION EMERGED NEAR N19E62
AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8123. CORONAGRAPH IMAGES NEAR
14/0630Z SHOWED A DENSE BUBBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION OFF THE EAST
LIMB NEAR THE EQUATOR. IT HAD REACHED APPROXIMATELY 10 RADII ABOVE
THE LIMB BY THAT TIME. NO CORRELATIVE REPORTS FROM GROUND BASED
OBSERVATORIES WERE RECEIVED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY LOW TO
LOW. REGION 8122 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED SMALL C-CLASS
EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS NEAR 14/1435Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE MASS
EJECTION MENTIONED ABOVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EARTH.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 DEC-17 DEC
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 DEC 090
PREDICTED   15 DEC-17 DEC  087/085/083
90 DAY MEAN        14 DEC 093
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 DEC  001/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 DEC  001/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 DEC-17 DEC  005/008-005/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 DEC-17 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01