:Product: 19971215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Dec 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 349 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 DEC 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW DUE TO A C1/SF FLARE AT 15/1846Z
IN REGION 8123 (N18E46). THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED SEVERAL B-CLASS
SUBFLARES. REGION 8122 (N31W60) HAS BEEN QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. SMALL C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN REGIONS 8122 AND
8123.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
WAS MODERATE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 DEC-18 DEC
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 DEC 089
PREDICTED   16 DEC-18 DEC  088/088/088
90 DAY MEAN        15 DEC 093
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 DEC  003/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 DEC  003/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 DEC-18 DEC  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 DEC-18 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01