:Product: 19971216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Dec 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 350 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 DEC 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW DUE TO A SINGLE C-CLASS FLARE (A
C2 AT 15/2350Z). NO OPTICAL REPORTS WERE RECEIVED FOR THIS X-RAY
FLARE BUT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT REGION 8123 (N18E32) WAS THE
SOURCE.  REGION 8123 HAS GROWN AND IS NOW A SMALL D-TYPE SUNSPOT
GROUP. REGION 8122 (N30W72) HAS DECAYED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. SMALL FLARES COULD OCCUR IN REGION 8123.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
WAS MODERATE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BECOMING
QUIET TO UNSETTLED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 DEC-19 DEC
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 DEC 085
PREDICTED   17 DEC-19 DEC  082/082/082
90 DAY MEAN        16 DEC 093
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 DEC  002/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 DEC  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 DEC-19 DEC  005/010-005/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 DEC-19 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01