:Product: 19971217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Dec 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 351 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 DEC 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ISOLATED, OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED X-RAY FLARES OCCURRED. REGION 8123 (N19E20) STABILIZED
AS A SMALL D-TYPE SPOT GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. SMALL FLARES COULD OCCUR WITHIN REGION 8123.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 DEC-20 DEC
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 DEC 086
PREDICTED   18 DEC-20 DEC  084/082/082
90 DAY MEAN        17 DEC 093
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 DEC  004/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 DEC  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 DEC-20 DEC  005/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 DEC-20 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           01/01/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01