:Product: 19971219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Dec 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 353 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 DEC 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  A LONG DURATION C1 EVENT BEGAN
WITH A SLOW RISE IN X-RAY BACKGROUND LEVELS AT APPROXIMATELY
19/1800Z, REACHED THE C1 THRESHOLD AT 19/2005Z, AND REMAINED AT THAT
LEVEL FOR APPROXIMATELY 50 MINUTES BEFORE BEGINNING A GRADUAL
DECLINE. THIS EVENT WAS NOT CORRELATED TO THE ONLY ACTIVE REGION
CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK, 8123 (N18W08), AND IS THOUGHT TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW REGION PREPARING TO ROTATE AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST LIMB.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 DEC-22 DEC
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 DEC 090
PREDICTED   20 DEC-22 DEC  084/084/084
90 DAY MEAN        19 DEC 093
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 DEC  006/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 DEC  003/003
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 DEC-22 DEC  010/010-010/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 DEC-22 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/00/00
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/15
MINOR STORM           05/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01