:Product: 19971220RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Dec 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 354 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 DEC 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8123 (N18W20),
CURRENTLY A 6-SPOT 'DSO' BETA GROUP, HAS REMAINED STABLE THROUGHOUT
THE REPORTING PERIOD. NEW REGION 8124 (S22E78), A SINGLE SPOT 'HSX'
ALPHA, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH THE CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 DEC-23 DEC
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 DEC 090
PREDICTED   21 DEC-23 DEC  086/086/088
90 DAY MEAN        20 DEC   093
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 DEC  005/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 DEC  004/003
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 DEC-23 DEC  010/010-010/010-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 DEC-23 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/00
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01