:Product: 19971223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Dec 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 357 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 23 DEC 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8124 (S22E40) WAS
GENERALLY QUIET, PRODUCING ONLY MINOR FLARING. THIS REGION HAS MORE
THAN DOUBLED ITS SPOT AREA AND NOW SHOWS AN EKC GROUP OF 27 SPOTS
WITH A COMPLEX BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. REGION 8123
(N18W64) HAS DECAYED INTO A SINGLE AXX SPOT. NEW REGIONS 8125
(N19E41), A SIMPLE BXO SPOT GROUP, AND 8126 (N20E79), AN HHX SPOT
GROUP, WERE NUMBERED TODAY. REGION 8126 IS THE REAPPEARANCE OF OLD
REGION 8113 WHICH PRODUCED FOUR M-CLASS FLARES AND ONE X-CLASS
FLARE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE, DESPITE THE LACK OF ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
REGION 8124 SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR C-CLASS FLARE ACTIVITY AND A
CHANCE FOR M-CLASS FLARING. THIS REGION MAY ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED X-CLASS ACTIVITY. REGION 8126 IS STILL AN UNKNOWN
DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE EAST LIMB, BUT APPEARS TO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARING. VIEWING
TOMORROW WILL DETERMINE THE PRESENCE OF TRAILER SPOTS, IF ANY, AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED FLARE POTENTIAL.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 DEC-26 DEC
CLASS M    25/25/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           23 DEC 104
PREDICTED   24 DEC-26 DEC  106/108/110
90 DAY MEAN        23 DEC 093
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 DEC  002/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 DEC  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 DEC-26 DEC  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 24 DEC-26 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01