:Product: 19971224RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Dec 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 358 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 DEC 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8124 (S22E27)
MANAGED ONLY TO PRODUCE A B4 SUBFLARE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS
REGION HAS DECAYED BUT REMAINS MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX WITH A
BETA-GAMMA-DELTA CONFIGURATION. REGIONS 8123 (N18W77) AND 8125
(N19E28) HAVE REMAINED STABLE AND MAGNETICALLY SIMPLE. REGION 8126
(N21E66) HAS GROWN BUT REMAINS A SIMPLE HHX SPOT WITH NO OBSERVED
TRAILER SPOTS. THIS REGION PRODUCED A B8 SUBFLARE LATE IN THE PERIOD
AND HAS SEEMINGLY REVEALED SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO LOW TO MODERATE AS REGION 8124 SLOWLY DECAYS AND 8126 GROWS. BOTH
REGIONS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF C-CLASS FLARING AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
PRODUCTING ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 DEC-27 DEC
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 DEC 108
PREDICTED   25 DEC-27 DEC  108/108/108
90 DAY MEAN        24 DEC 094
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 DEC  003/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 DEC  006/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 DEC-27 DEC  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 DEC-27 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01