:Product: 19971225RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Dec 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 359 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 25 DEC 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW DESPITE THE EXISTENCE
OF REGION 8124 (S22E14). THIS REGION HAS PRODUCED ONLY TWO MINOR
B-CLASS SUBFLARES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. 8124 IS SLOWLY DECAYING,
BUT OBSERVATORIES REPORT A TIGHTENING AND TWISTING MAGNETIC GRADIENT
AND MODERATE SPOT GROUP ROTATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8126
(N21E54) WAS STABLE AND QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. REGION 8124 STILL HAS A
GOOD CHANCE OF C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND A SMALLER CHANCE OF ISOLATED
M-CLASS ACTIVITY. REGION 8126 HAS A CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL C-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 DEC-28 DEC
CLASS M    25/25/10
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           25 DEC 105
PREDICTED   26 DEC-28 DEC  102/102/100
90 DAY MEAN        25 DEC 094
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 DEC  004/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 DEC  003/004
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 DEC-28 DEC  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 26 DEC-28 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01