:Product: 19971227RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Dec 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 361 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 DEC 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT A LOW LEVEL. REGION 8124
(S21W11) PRODUCED A C3/1F AT 27/1638Z. THIS REGION WAS PREDOMINANTLY
STABLE DURING THE PERIOD. SOME MIXED POLARITIES REMAINED AND A WEAK
DELTA CONFIGURATION MAY EXIST IN THE CENTER OF THE REGION. AN
ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE WAS OBSERVED BETWEEN 26/2352Z-27/0116Z FROM
N35W90. THE MATERIAL REACHED 0.19 RADIUS ABOVE THE LIMB BEFORE
FADING. A SMALL REGION EMERGED NEAR N28W53 AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW
REGION 8128.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT A
GENERALLY LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8124 SHOULD
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS. AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IS
POSSIBLE FROM THIS REGION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET FOR 28-29 DEC. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 20
DEC IN RESPONSE TO A PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON
26 DEC.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 DEC-30 DEC
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 DEC 096
PREDICTED   28 DEC-30 DEC  097/098/098
90 DAY MEAN        27 DEC 094
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 DEC  002/001
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 DEC  001/002
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 DEC-30 DEC  005/004-005/005-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 DEC-30 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01