:Product: 19971228RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Dec 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 362 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 DEC 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME VERY LOW. REGION 8124 (S20W23)
PRODUCED MINOR FLUCTUATIONS. MINOR MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY REMAINED IN
THIS REGION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY LOW TO
LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF AN
M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8124.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD CONTINUED AT A QUIET LEVEL.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET ON 29 DEC. UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON 30-31 DEC IN RESPONSE TO A PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS
EJECTION OBSERVED ON 26 DEC.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 DEC-31 DEC
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 DEC 102
PREDICTED   29 DEC-31 DEC  102/103/105
90 DAY MEAN        28 DEC 094
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 DEC  000/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 DEC  001/002
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 DEC-31 DEC  005/005-010/008-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 DEC-31 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/20/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/20/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01