:Product: 19971229RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Dec 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 363 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 DEC 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8126 (N19E05)
PRODUCED A SUBFLARE AT 29/1218UT BUT HAS BEEN QUIET SINCE. REGION
8124 (S20W37) EXHIBITED SLIGHT DECAY BUT MAINTAINS MINOR MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY. NEW REGIONS 8129 (N28E36) AND 8130 (S29E30) WERE
NUMBERED TODAY WITH 8130 QUICKLY DEVELOPING A 5 SPOT BXO GROUP. THE
REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN VERY QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY LOW TO
LOW. BOTH REGIONS 8124 AND 8126 HAVE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED C-CLASS
FLARING. REGION 8130 IS DEVELOPING RATHER QUICKLY AND MAY SOON BE A
THREAT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. PERIODS
OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO THE PARTIAL HALO
CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON 26 DEC AND THE FAVORABLE
POSITIONING OF A WEAK CORONAL HOLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 DEC-01 JAN
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 DEC 104
PREDICTED   30 DEC-01 JAN  104/105/105
90 DAY MEAN        29 DEC 094
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 DEC  001/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 DEC  002/002
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 DEC-01 JAN  010/005-015/013-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 DEC-01 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/20
MINOR STORM           05/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01