:Product: 19971230RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Dec 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 364 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 30 DEC 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  REGION 8124 (S22W55)
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SLOW DECAY AND STILL MAINTAINS MINOR MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY. REGION 8130 (S29E16) IS GROWING BUT IS A RELATIVELY
SIMPLE SUNSPOT GROUP. BOTH REGIONS 8126 (N21W10) AND 8130
EXPERIENCED NUMEROUS INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS BUT HAVE BEEN
QUIET SINCE 1400Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY LOW TO
LOW. ALL THREE SPOTTED REGIONS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
C-CLASS FLARING.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS.
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT MOST MID AND LOW
LATITUDE STATIONS WHILE ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRED IN
THE HIGH LATITUDES. THE DISTURBANCE FOLLOWED A SUDDEN STORM
COMMENCEMENT AT 30/0215Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
MINOR STORMING IN THE HIGH LATITUDES. THE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MOSTLY UNSETTLED LATE IN THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 31 DEC-02 JAN
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           30 DEC 101
PREDICTED   31 DEC-02 JAN  102/102/098
90 DAY MEAN        30 DEC 094
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 DEC  002/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 DEC  018/022
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 DEC-02 JAN  015/013-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 31 DEC-02 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/30/20
MINOR STORM           20/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/35/25
MINOR STORM           30/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    15/05/01