:Product: 19971231RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Dec 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 365 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 31 DEC 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  30/2100Z
TO 31/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8124 (S21W63) PRODUCED A
C4/SF AT 31/2027Z ALONG WITH A C1/SF AT 31/1826Z. A WEAK DELTA
CONFIGURATION REMAINS IN THIS REGION IN SPITE OF SLOW OVERALL DECAY.
REGION 8126 (N21W23) ALSO PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 31/0718Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT
GENERALLY LOW LEVELS FOR 01-02 JAN. REGION 8124 ROTATES OVER THE
WEST LIMB ON 03 JAN AND THE FREQUENCY OF C-CLASS EVENTS SHOULD BEGIN
TO ABATE. THERE IS A SLIGHT PROBABILITY OF REGION 8124 PRODUCING AN
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE DISTURBANCE OBSERVED ON 30 DEC
ENDED NEAR 30/2100Z.  NOTE:  BEGINNING ON 01 JAN 98, ALL
FREDERICKSBURG A-INDICES WILL BE ESTIMATED VALUES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 JAN-03 JAN
CLASS M    10/10/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           31 DEC 105
PREDICTED   01 JAN-03 JAN  103/103/098
90 DAY MEAN        31 DEC 095
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 DEC  018/025
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 DEC  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 JAN-03 JAN  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 JAN-03 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01