:Product: 19980101RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jan 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 001 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 JAN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  31/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE DUE TO AN M1/SN FROM
REGION 8124 (S21W78) AT 01/0307Z. THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED A C1/SF
AT 01/0134Z AND A C2/SF AT 01/0704Z. FORESHORTENING MAKES ANALYSIS
DIFFICULT IN THIS REGION BUT IT IS ASSUMED THAT SOME DEGREE OF
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY REMAINS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY LOW
FOR 02-03 JAN. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8124
DURING THIS TIME. VERY LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON 04 JAN AS REGION
8124 MOVES BEHIND THE WEST LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 31/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOME HIGH LATITUDE
SITES EXPERIENCED ACTIVE CONDITIONS IN THE 01/0600-0900Z PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 JAN-04 JAN
CLASS M    15/10/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 JAN 102
PREDICTED   02 JAN-04 JAN  098/093/090
90 DAY MEAN        01 JAN 095
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 DEC  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 JAN  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 JAN-04 JAN  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 JAN-04 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01