:Product: 19980105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jan 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 005 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 JAN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW DUE TO A  C1 FLARE WHICH
OCCURRED AT 05/0159Z. NO OPTICAL FLARE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED. ALL
NUMBERED DISK REGIONS ARE SMALL AND SIMPLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ACTIVITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON JANUARY 06-07 IN RESPONSE TO A CME WHICH WAS
OBSERVED JANUARY 03.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 JAN-08 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 JAN 089
PREDICTED   06 JAN-08 JAN  086/084/084
90 DAY MEAN        05 JAN 095
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 JAN  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 JAN  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 JAN-08 JAN  010/010-015/012-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 JAN-08 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01