:Product: 19980106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jan 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 006 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 JAN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES WERE OBSERVED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND DATA SUGGESTS
THAT AN INTERPLANETARY SHOCK ARRIVED AT THE EARTH AT ABOUT 06/1300Z.
THIS SHOCK IS BELIEVED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CME OBSERVED ON
JANUARY 03.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE
CURRENT DISTURBANCE CONTINUES. ISOLATED STORM PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 JAN-09 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 JAN 087
PREDICTED   07 JAN-09 JAN  085/085/085
90 DAY MEAN        06 JAN 095
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 JAN  004/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 JAN  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 JAN-09 JAN  015/015-010/010-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 JAN-09 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01