:Product: 19980107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jan 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 007 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 JAN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED. ALL
NUMBERED REGIONS ARE SPOTLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM STORM LEVELS TO QUIET CONDITIONS.
THE ACTIVITY IS BELIEVED TO BE RELATED TO THE JANUARY 03 CME.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH 08 JANUARY AS THE
CURRENT DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. THE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS BY JANUARY 09.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 JAN-10 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 JAN 085
PREDICTED   08 JAN-10 JAN  085/085/085
90 DAY MEAN        07 JAN 095
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 JAN  016/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 JAN  022/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 JAN-10 JAN  010/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 JAN-10 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/10/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01