:Product: 19980110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jan 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 010 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 JAN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. NEWLY NUMBERED REGION
8131 (S26E19),  A SMALL B-TYPE GROUP, PRODUCED A B-CLASS SUBFLARE
LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET WITH ISOLATED UNSETTLED
PERIODS OBSERVED AT MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS AT 10/1623UT.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO MOSTLY QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS
EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO MODERATE TO NORMAL LEVELS BY 12 JANUARY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 JAN-13 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 JAN 081
PREDICTED   11 JAN-13 JAN  082/082/082
90 DAY MEAN        10 JAN 095
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 JAN  009/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 JAN  006/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 JAN-13 JAN  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 JAN-13 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/05
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/05
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01