:Product: 19980111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jan 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 011 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 JAN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ISOLATED B-CLASS X-RAY
FLARES OCCURRED. A NEW REGION EMERGED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
REGION 8131 (S24E10) AND WAS NUMBERED AS 8132 (S18E03). BOTH REGIONS
WERE STABLE DURING THE PERIOD. NEW REGIONS 8133 (N04E24) AND 8134
(N15E73) WERE ALSO NUMBERED. SPACE-BASED CORONAGRAPH IMAGERY
INDICATED A CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME) DEPARTED THE WEST LIMB
AROUND 10/2200UT. THE CME WAS SLIGHTLY INCLINED TO THE ECLIPTIC AND
APPEARED TO BE MOSTLY WESTWARD DIRECTED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGIONS 8131 AND 8132 MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED C-CLASS
FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET WITH ISOLATED UNSETTLED
PERIODS OBSERVED AT MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX DECLINED TO MODERATE LEVELS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECLINE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 JAN-14 JAN
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 JAN 085
PREDICTED   12 JAN-14 JAN  086/086/086
90 DAY MEAN        11 JAN 095
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 JAN  007/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 JAN  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 JAN-14 JAN  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 JAN-14 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/05
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/05
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01