:Product: 19980112RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jan 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 012 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 JAN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8131
(S23E04) PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES AS IT DISPLAYED
SIGNIFICANT SPOT GROWTH AND INCREASED MAGNETIC FIELD GRADIENTS. THE
REMAINING REGIONS WERE SMALL AND STABLE. A PARTIAL-HALO CORONAL MASS
EJECTION WAS DETECTED BEGINNING ABOUT 12/0400UT AND AT LAST REPORT
SPANNED AT LEAST 180 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORTH POLE. NO NEW REGIONS
WERE ASSIGNED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGION 8131 IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES. THIS REGION MAY
ALSO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IF PRESENT GROWTH CONTINUES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS INCREASING TO
QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS BY DAY THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 JAN-15 JAN
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 JAN 096
PREDICTED   13 JAN-15 JAN  098/098/100
90 DAY MEAN        12 JAN 095
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 JAN  007/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 JAN  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 JAN-15 JAN  005/005-005/005-010/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 JAN-15 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/20
MINOR STORM           01/01/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    00/00/00
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/20/30
MINOR STORM           00/05/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    00/00/05