:Product: 19980113RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jan 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 013 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 JAN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW BY VIRTUE OF A C1/SF FLARE IN
REGION 8131 (S22W10) AT 12/2113Z AND AN UNCORELATED C1 XRAY BURST AT
13/1016Z. REGION 8131 (S22W10) REMAINED RELATIVELY STABLE AND QUIET.
NEW REGION 8135 (S17E69), A SINGLE AXX SPOT, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGION 8131 HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PRODUCING C-CLASS FLARES AND
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN BECOME QUIET TO
UNSETTLED IN RESPONSE TO TWO CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS OBSERVED EARLIER
THIS WEEK. HIGH LATITUDES MAY EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF ACTIVE LEVELS BY
DAY THREE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 JAN-16 JAN
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 JAN 090
PREDICTED   14 JAN-16 JAN  090/090/094
90 DAY MEAN        13 JAN 095
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 JAN  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 JAN  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 JAN-16 JAN  005/005-010/005-015/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 JAN-16 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01