:Product: 19980114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jan 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 014 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 JAN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8131 (S22W22), STILL
SLOWLY GROWING, PRODUCED A C1/SF FLARE AT 14/1311Z, A C4/SF FLARE AT
14/1603Z, AND A C2/SF FLARE AT 14/2038Z. REGION 8135 (S17E56), A 2
SPOT BXO, REMAINED STABLE AND QUIET. THE REMAINDER OF THE VISIBLE
DISK WAS QUIET. A SERIES OF TEN UNCORELATED B-CLASS XRAY BURSTS WERE
ALSO DETECTED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGION 8131 HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF CONTINUED C-CLASS FLARE
PRODUCTION AND A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT MID LATITUDES AND QUIET TO
UNSETTLED AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR DAY ONE  OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, THEN MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, IN
RESPONSE TO TWO MINOR CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS DETECTED ON 11 AND 12
JANUARY. HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS CAN EXPECT ISOLATED PERIODS OF
ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 JAN-17 JAN
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 JAN 094
PREDICTED   15 JAN-17 JAN  094/096/096
90 DAY MEAN        14 JAN 095
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 JAN  005/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 JAN  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 JAN-17 JAN  010/008-015/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 JAN-17 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01