:Product: 19980115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jan 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 015 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 JAN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8131 (S23W35)
PRODUCED AN M1/1F FLARE AT 15/1438Z, A C6.8/SF FLARE AT 15/0936, A
C1/SF FLARE AT 15/1312Z, AND A C1/SF FLARE AT 15/1949Z. THIS REGION
ALMOST DOUBLED IN SIZE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS NOW AN EAI SPOT
GROUP. REGION 8135 (S16E43), THE ONLY OTHER SPOTTED REGION ON THE
VISIBLE DISK, HAS REMAINED SMALL, STABLE, AND QUIET. TWO UNCORELATED
C1 XRAY BURSTS WERE ALSO DETECTED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW TO MODERATE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. REGION 8131 HAS A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND A FAIR CHANCE OF
PRODUCING ONE OR MORE ISOLATE M-CLASS FLARES. THIS REGION ALSO HAS A
SMALL CHANCE OF PRODUCING X-CLASS ACTIVITY. SPACE-BASED XRAY IMAGERS
INDICATE AT LEAST TWO OTHER POTENTIAL FLARES SOUCES ARE ABOUT TO
ENTER THE VISIBLE DISK ON THE EAST LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUTDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THEN SETTLE DOWN TO QUIET LEVELS. HIGH LATITUDE
STATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE
FIRST WO DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 JAN-18 JAN
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 JAN 098
PREDICTED   16 JAN-18 JAN  100/102/102
90 DAY MEAN        15 JAN 095
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 JAN  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 JAN  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 JAN-18 JAN  015/010-010/010-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 JAN-18 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/10
MINOR STORM           15/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01