:Product: 19980116RSGA.txt :Issued: 1998 Jan 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY : : : : : CORRECTED COPY : : : : : SDF NUMBER 016 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 JAN 1998 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. SEVERAL B-CLASS X-RAY FLARES OCCURRED. GROWTH IN REGION 8131 (S24W49) SLOWED CONSIDERABLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE REGION HAS STABILIZED BUT MAINTAINS A RELATIVELY COMPLEX MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. NEW REGIONS 8136 (N15W24), 8137 (S16E10), AND 8138 (S44W49) WERE NUMBERED TODAY. REGION 8136 IS THE MOST IMPRESSIVE OF THE THREE NEW REGIONS, DEVELOPING QUICKLY INTO A 10 SPOT CRO GROUP. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. THOUGH MOSTLY STABLE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, REGION 8131 WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MORE C-CLASS FLARES AND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS. C-CLASS FLARING IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM NEW REGION 8136. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH LATITUDES. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH TOMORROW. EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS ON DAYS TWO AND THREE. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 JAN-19 JAN CLASS M 25/30/30 CLASS X 05/05/05 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 16 JAN 098 PREDICTED 17 JAN-19 JAN 098/102/106 90 DAY MEAN 16 JAN 096 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 JAN 002/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 JAN 006/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 JAN-19 JAN 010/010-005/005-005/005 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 JAN-19 JAN A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 20/15/10 MINOR STORM 10/05/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 20/15/10 MINOR STORM 15/10/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01