:Product: 19980117RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jan 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 017 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 JAN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8131 (S23W61)
PRODUCED A SUBFLARE AT 17/0112Z AND AGAIN AT 17/0159Z BUT HAS BEEN
QUIET SINCE. THIS REGION EXHIBITED CONSIDERABLE DECAY OVER THE PAST
24-48 HOURS AND NOW CONSISTS OF 10 SPOTS MEASURING 260 MILLIONTHS IN
WHITE LIGHT AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NOTED IN THE REMAINING
REGIONS. NEW REGION 8139 (N14E37), A THREE SPOT AXX GROUP, WAS
NUMBERED TODAY. SPACE-BASED IMAGES SHOW ENHANCED EMISSIONS ON THE
SOUTHEAST LIMB. THIS IS THE PROBABLE SOURCE REGION OF A PROMINENCE
ERUPTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NO APPARENT CORRELATED ACTIVITY WAS
OBSERVED WITH THIS EVENT.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8131 APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY THREAT FOR C-CLASS
ACTIVITY AND MAINTAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRODUCING AN M-CLASS
FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET. HIGH LATITUDES EXPERIENCED
SOME INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF UNSETTLED ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 JAN-20 JAN
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 JAN 096
PREDICTED   18 JAN-20 JAN  096/098/100
90 DAY MEAN        17 JAN 096
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 JAN  005/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 JAN  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 JAN-20 JAN  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 JAN-20 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01