:Product: 19980119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jan 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 019 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 JAN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A B3 FLARE AND WEAK TYPE
II SWEEP OCCURRED AT 19/0711Z. THE SOURCE REGION BECAME APPARENT
FROM SPACE-BASED IMAGERY WHICH INDICATED AN ERUPTION  NEAR N28W81
FOLLOWED BY A CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME). THE EVENT BEGAN LATE
YESTERDAY AS A DARK, BROAD SIX DEGREE LONG FILAMENT BECAME ACTIVE
THEN SLOWLY BEGAN LOSING MASS BEFORE FINALLY ERUPTING. REGION 8131
(S24W88) EXPERIENCED SEVERAL INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BUT IS NOW QUIETLY ROTATING AROUND THE WEST LIMB. NEW REGIONS
8140 (S14W61) AND 8141 (N26E48) WERE NUMBERED TODAY. THE REMAINING
REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET. MATERIAL FROM THIS MORNING'S CME APPEARED
WESTWARD DIRECTED SO NO EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 JAN-22 JAN
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 JAN 094
PREDICTED   20 JAN-22 JAN  092/090/088
90 DAY MEAN        19 JAN 096
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 JAN  008/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 JAN  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 JAN-22 JAN  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 JAN-22 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           01/01/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           01/01/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01