:Product: 19980120RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jan 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 020 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 JAN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW DUE TO AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C1 FLARE AT 20/1940Z. OPTICAL PATROL WAS UNHINDERED
DURING THIS TIME SO THE BURST MOST LIKELY CAME FROM BEHIND THE EAST
OR WEST LIMB. EXISTING DISK REGIONS REMAINED STABLE OR DECAYED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT A VERY LOW
LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE 20/0300-0600Z AND 20/1500-2100Z PERIODS WHEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
LEVELS WERE OBSERVED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY SLOWLY INCREASED DURING
THE PERIOD TO OVER 450 KM/S.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 JAN-23 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 JAN 091
PREDICTED   21 JAN-23 JAN  090/089/088
90 DAY MEAN        20 JAN 096
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 JAN  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 JAN  012/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 JAN-23 JAN  010/010-010/010-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 JAN-23 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/30/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/35/15
MINOR STORM           10/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01