:Product: 19980122RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jan 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 022 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 JAN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT A VERY LOW LEVEL. NEW
REGION 8142 (S21E08) EMERGED IN AN OLD PLAGE FIELD AND ANOTHER SMALL
SUNSPOT GROUP BECAME VISIBLE AT S35E73 AND WAS NUMBERED AS REGION
8143.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT VERY LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET ON 23 JAN. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE 24-25 JAN PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
OBSERVED EARLY ON 21 JAN. ISOLATED MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS SMALL DISTURBANCE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 JAN-25 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 JAN 093
PREDICTED   23 JAN-25 JAN  092/092/092
90 DAY MEAN        22 JAN 096
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 JAN  006/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 JAN  002/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 JAN-25 JAN  005/008-012/012-012/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 JAN-25 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/35/35
MINOR STORM           05/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/10/10
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/35/35
MINOR STORM           05/25/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/10/10